It's A Man's World: Global motorcycles market demand to rise 7.2% annually to 2016

This study analyzes the world motorcycle industry. It presents historical demand data for the years 2001, 2006 and 2011, and forecasts for 2016 and 2021 for internal combustion engine motorcycles (scooters, mopeds and motorbikes, light motorcycles, medium/heavy motorcycles) and electric motorcycles worldwide, as well as total motorcycle demand by world region and major country. The study also considers market environment factors, details industry structure, evaluates company market share and profiles industry players.

The worldwide market for motorcycles, including electrically-powered twowheelers, is forecast to grow 7.2 percent annually to 134.5 million units in 2016, and industry revenues are expected to rise 8.7 percent per year to $90.1 billion. The Asia/Pacific region will continue to dominate worldwide demand, representing 84 percent of all units sold in 2016. The region, which is home to the six largest national motorcycle markets, will account for more than four-fifths of all new unit sales between 2011 and 2016. However, it will only be the fourth fastest growing region in percentage terms behind North America, the Africa/Mideast region, and Eastern Europe, much smaller markets that together account for less than onetenth of global demand. China will remain by far the largest national market.

World sales of motorcycles will be fueled by rising standards of living in developing nations. There is a strong correlation between average income levels and motorcycle demand up to a certain point. In emerging economies where motorcycles are an attractive alternative to walking, riding a bicycle, or utilizing mass transit, strong growth in motorcycle sales are triggered once certain per capita income thresholds are reached. However, as average incomes increase further and light vehicles become more affordable, markets start to make the transition from motorcycle to automobile dominance. Demand gains for motorcycles will also be supported by higher petroleum costs due to the superior fuel efficiency these machines provide compared to light vehicles. Furthermore, a rebound from the 2007-2009 recession in developed countries like the US will lead to higher product sales, particularly of medium and heavy motorcycles, as economic conditions become more favorable and consumers begin to purchase these expensive, recreational items again.

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ICE motorcycles to remain dominant world market

Internal combustion engine (ICE) motorcycles will continue to dominate the global market. Product sales are projected to rise at a 7.9 percent annual rate through 2016, when they will account for 71 percent of total demand. Light motorcycles will post the greatest growth and remain the single largest ICE product segment in unit terms because they offer a mix of the best attributes of smaller (lower cost) and larger displacement models (more power). ICE motorbikes, scooters, and mopeds will be the second largest and second fastest growing ICE product segment, totalling approximately one-third of all product sales in 2016. Market gains will be fueled by these products’ low cost and easy maneuverability in congested urban areas. Medium and heavy motorcycles will increase the slowest of all major product types and account for only three percent of 2016 unit sales (although they are much more significant in value terms).

E-bikes, e-cycles to pace gains in Asia/Pacific region

Sales of electric bicycles (e-bikes) and electric motorcycles (e-cycles) are forecast to grow roughly in line with the motorcycle demand as a whole. These products are most popular in the Asia/ Pacific region, and China in particular, which will account for nearly nine-tenths of the 2016 world e-bike and e-cycle sales total. In most other parts of the world, they will remain niche products that make up a relatively small share of motorcycle demand.

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Company Profiles

Profiles 34 global industry Players such as Bajaj Auto, BMW, Chongquing Lifan, Dachangjiang, Harley-Davidson, Hero MotoCorp, Honda, Kawasaki, Piaggio, Suzuki, and Yamaha

Additional Information

This study analyzes the world market for motorcycles, including both internal combustion engine (ICE) and electric types. The following types of ICE motorcycles are covered: scooters of all displacements, mopeds, and motorbikes of 100 cubic centimeters (cc) or less engine displacement; light motorcycles of 101 cc to 249 cc; and medium and heavy motorcycles of 250 cc and greater. Electrically-powered motorcycles (“e-cycles”) include electric bicycles (e-bikes), mopeds, scooters, and larger motorcycles.

In addition to two-wheeled vehicles, three-wheeled motorcycles are included in the study numbers. Three-wheeled motorcycles include both sidecar motorcycles (two-wheeled motorcycles with an attached one-wheel sidecar) and traditional or purpose-build motorcycles used for recreational purposes that are fitted with a two-wheeled axle in either the front or rear. Not included are separately sold sidecars, three-wheeled auto rickshaws, or truck- like “three wheelers” produced in India, China, and other emerging markets that are used principally for business purposes.

Historical data for 2001, 2006, and 2011 and forecasts to 2016 and 2021 are provided for production (total), demand by product type, and net exports and sales from inventory (total) of new motorcycles on a country-by-country basis in thousands of units. Also provided are the total number of motorcycles in use and total new motorcycle demand in millions of current US dollars at the manufacturers’ level. The term “demand” actually refers to “apparent consumption” and is defined as production (also referred to as “shipments,” “output,” or “supply”) from a nation’s indigenous motorcycle manufacturing facilities plus imports minus exports. It is used interchangeably with the terms “market,” “sales,” and “consumption.”

Data on world motorcycle supply and demand are derived from differing sources and developed from statistical relationships. As a result, variations are commonplace in this type of international reporting, and consequently, statistics presented in this study are historically consistent but may differ from other sources. Variances may occur because of definitional differences, undistributed exports, inventory accumulation and goods-in-transit. To reduce the impact of such discrepancies, total world motorcycle imports and exports have been assumed to balance in any given year.

In addition, major global motorcycle manufacturers are identified and profiled, and the key competitive variables are discussed. The entire report is framed within the world motorcycle industry’s economic and market environments, and therefore environmental variables affecting motorcycle supply/demand patterns are emphasized. World motorcycle market share data by company presented in the “Industry Structure” section are estimated based on consultation with multiple sources. In addition, tabular details may not always add to totals due to rounding.

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